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NTSB Takes On GA Weather Hazards |
New Methodology
Employs Statistics
Typically, the NTSB reports on flight risks after
reviewing a set of relevant accidents, but for its
latest report, released last week, the board has
implemented a new methodology. The new
"case-control" statistical-analysis approach was
used in a study of GA weather-related accidents,
comparing a group of accident flights to a matching
group of non-accident flights in an effort to
identify patterns of variables that distinguish the
two groups from each other. The advantage, the NTSB
says, is that instead of focusing on factors that
accidents have in common -- and possibly being
misled by characteristics common to most pilots and
flights -- it identifies characteristics that set
accidents apart and contribute to their occurrence.
All non-accident pilots voluntarily consented to
interviews and provided information about their
flights and their aircraft and details about their
training, experience, and demographics. That
information was compared with data about the
accident flights. Additionally, the FAA provided
information about pilots' practical and written test
results and their previous accident/ incident
involvement.
For this study, NTSB investigators collected data
from 72 GA accidents that occurred between August
2003 and April 2004. An additional 135 safe flights
that were conducted in the same area and time as the
accident flights were also studied. The analysis
showed that risk factors associated with flying in
instrument weather conditions or low visibility
include: 1) pilot age and training-related
differences; 2) pilot testing, accident, and
incident history; and 3) pilot weather briefing
sources and methods. The board recommended that the
FAA should beef up weather-related portions of the
Airman Knowledge Tests and flight reviews, develop a
means to identify at-risk pilots and target them for
intervention, and improve the delivery of weather
information to pilots. The NTSB's last published
report on weather-related GA accident risks was in
1989. That report focused on accidents in which VFR
into IMC was cited as a probable cause or
contributing factor, and did not generate any new
safety recommendations.
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